Accumulate Aurobindo Pharma; target of Rs 712: Dolat Cap

Written By Unknown on Kamis, 05 Juni 2014 | 23.07

Dolat Capital has maintained accumulate rating on Aurobindo Pharma with a target of Rs 712, in its June 02, 2014 report.

Dolat Capital report on Aurobindo Pharma :

Revenues grew by 48.5% to Rs 23.1bn, led by exclusive sales of gCymbalta and Auromedics (USD 10mn sales), sales improvement in Aurolife and market share gain in injectables business in the US market.

EBITDA margins increased by 1660bps to 31.9%, primarily on account of exclusive sales of gCymbalta.

PBT for the quarter grew 312% to Rs 6.3bn. Tax rate stood at 26.2% against 29.0% in Q4FY13. Consequently, reported PAT grew 362% YoY to Rs 5.0bn.

Strong top-line growth was primarily on account of US biz.- 129.6% YoY, EU - & ROW biz. - 21.4% YoY, and SSP's biz. – 35.0% YoY.

Going forward, key things to watch out: Consolidation of European business (on account of acqusition of Actavis' Western European biz.)

We expect the core US biz to show 17% CAGR over FY14-16E, driven by focus on differentiated products like controlled substances, ophthalmics, dermatology, hormones and oncology. The company intends to file 100 injectable products for the US market from Unit IV and Unit XII and has filed 45 products till date and 55 products to be filed by FY16E. Aurobindo's regulatory pipeline boasts of 336 ANDAs (165- final approval, 26-tentative approval) and 172 DMFs , which are supported by strong backward integration ensuring price competitiveness.

Valuation

With new filings in Penems and high value injectables, we believe the company's pending approvals of 120+ ANDAs auger well for quality of revenues from US generics and margin. Major concern for the company is the huge dollar debt (net debt USD 540mn) but we believe Aurobindo's current cash flow generation would not only help to service this debt but also meet repayment obligations.

At CMP, the stock trades at 15.0x FY15E & 11.7x FY16E earnings. We maintain 'Accumulate' recommendation, with a revised target price of Rs 712 (13x FY16E EPS).

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