The RBI had restricted banks from borrowing at 7.25 percent from the repo window. It had forced them to borrow at a higher rate of 10.25 percent from a special window called marginal standing facility (MSF).
Also read: Fed inaction gives RBI room to unwind earlier steps: Nomura
Around 55 percent of those polled expect the central bank to cut the MSF rate. Some expect a 50 bps (basis points) cut, while others expect as much as 200 bps. Only 45 percent expect the rate to be maintained at 10.25 percent.
A majority of people surveyed also expect the RBI to reduce the daily CRR (cash reserve ratio) requirement of banks in a calibrated manner. This move had taken away banks' flexibility in managing their CRR (the amount of deposits they have to keep in cash with the central bank).
Around 60 percent of the market now expects RBI to bring down this daily requirement to 90 percent of CRR, while 20 percent expect it to come down below 90 percent.
However, the street does not expect the central bank to remove the cap on repo borrowing anytime soon. This would mean MSF will continue to be the operational policy rate i.e. the rate at which banks borrow.
While 70 percent expect cap on banks' borrowing from the repo window to remain at 0.5 percent of total deposits, only 30 percent expect this limit to be raised to 1 percent of total deposits.
The market is going to closely read the new governor's policy stance. 35 percent of those polled expect Rajan to sound hawkish, 35 percent expect him to sound dovish on growth and 30 percent to strike a more balanced tone.
Finally, there is a good chance, that Rajan may announce more market development steps; new products though on this there is less clarity and more excitement.
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