In an interview to CNBC-TV18, renowned economists Kenneth Rogoff of Harvard University and Fan Gang, National Eco Research Institute spoke about whether the US economy will get back on track this year. According to Gang, the worst is over for global economy and 2013 looks better than 2012.
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Rogoff said, "Political economy is not getting solved anytime soon as the two sides get further and further apart. We are just seeing a skirmish in a longer set of battles and even war over spending priorities, the role of government." The idea that there is going to be a grand bargain and its all going to be settled is very optimistic. They may at least come over the grand bargain to take us through a year, but I don't think we are going to have a 10 year plan that is sustainable and credible."
When asked whether people around the world should be prepared for a year of fairly weak growth in the US and a year of no growth in Europe Rogoff said that growth will get a little better in the US even with this cloud because you are coming from such a low base and such high unemployment. The US has a better trajectory than Europe. However I don't think it is going to be fantastic even in the best of situations.
Further Rogoff adds that he is looking for an estimate of 2.5 percent. Considering fourth quarter it could be 2 percent, 4 percent or high 2-3 percent.
Chinese economist Gang believed that 2013 would be better than 2012. "We don't expect the US and Europe to get a normal growth or high growth. The worst part is already over. Euro has stabilised and European economy is still low but stabilised, not going down further," added Gang. Further Gang expects the US to come into a recession and that will provide a list of conditions for the world markets. Most of the countries of emerging markets expect higher growth in 2013.
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